The opening created in the aftermath of the July 14 nuclear deal between Iran and the six world powers (the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany, or P5+1), which could have triggered a diplomatic uplift over Syria, has so far been wasted. Instead, the regional divide over Syria is deepening and major powers have failed to seriously press Riyadh and Tehran to de-escalate their proxy war in Syria. Meanwhile, the costs for the West and the Middle East continue rising as a result of the festering crises in Syria and Iraq.
There had been hopes that this month’s UN General Assembly in New York could provide the platform to actively pursue diplomacy on Syria. But UN Special Envoy Staffan de Mistura has so far been unable to effectively set into motion plans for "de-conflicting" Syria through the formation of a new contact group.
In the absence of buy-in from both Riyadh and Tehran, the Syrian conflict remains deadlocked. This stalemate is borne out of three fundamental areas of divide in their respective maximalist positions.
First, there is critical divergence over the source of instability in the Middle East, and therefore stark contrast in conceptualizing the “enemy.” For Saudi Arabia, Iran is a “nefarious” regional actor that has overstretched its ambitions in the Arab world, bringing with it great instability. In a recent off-the-record conversation with a senior Gulf Arab official, it was clear that Saudi Arabia’s regional priority was focused on limiting Tehran’s orbit of influence in Syria and consequently weakening its stronghold in Lebanon.
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