Russia’s military intervention could be the last nail in the coffin of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Islamist/Sunni-based desires for the future of war-torn Syria. It has also left him facing stark truths about where Ankara’s security interests ultimately lie when push comes to shove in any serious international crisis on Turkey’s borders.
Erdogan has made his anti-Western sentiments and dislike for NATO more than apparent in the past, even though Turkey is a long-standing member of the alliance and a candidate for EU membership. He is therefore in the spotlight now for what one analyst has referred to as his “full U-turn” in this regard.
Aware that Turkey has a limited capacity to respond to Russia on its own, Erdogan is relying on Turkey’s NATO membership as a counterbalance, especially since Russian jets violated Turkish airspace as they carried out strikes against anti-Assad targets in northern Syria.
Erdogan’s position contrasts sharply with his previous statements, in which he openly suggested he would rather be in an alliance with Russia than with the West. In 2013, he even called on Russian President Vladimir Putin to help Turkey join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which comprises Russia, China and the former Soviet Republics in Central Asia. In return, Erdogan indicated he would be prepared to dump Ankara’s EU bid.
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