The Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) Nov. 1 landslide electoral victory stunned secular and liberal Turks, not to mention international observers. Even AKP officials admit they were not expecting such a turnout after losing their parliamentary majority in the June elections. One of the questions now being asked is what the victory, and the manner in which it reinforces President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s position, will mean for Turkey’s foreign policy at such a critical moment in the Middle East, especially in regard to Syria.

Initial assessments by some Turkish analysts and international observers are not positive. They believe the AKP has little reason to change its policies after obtaining a strong mandate from the public. Others, however, think the mandate will provide Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu's government room to maneuver, enabling it to act more pragmatically on issues like Syria and ties with Egypt.

Ersin Kalaycioglu, professor of political science at Istanbul’s Sabanci University and a well-known political commentator, believes “there is no chance” that the AKP will change tack. “Did the AKP lose any votes because of the violence in the country, the economic crisis, bomb attacks and so on? It did not. So, why should it change its strategy?” Kalaycioglu spoke on CNN Turk after the election results became apparent. 

Wolfango Piccoli, managing director with Teneo Intelligence who covers political risk in Turkey, is of the same opinion. “Now more than ever, the AKP is left with no real incentive to change course. This counts for economic policy as such, but also pertains to Erdogan’s general approach to politics,” Piccoli wrote in an assessment made available to Al-Monitor.