Turkey is facing a danger even greater than its strained relations with Russia, the continuing unrest in the southeast, the civil wars in Syria and Iraq, and those who compare President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to the Lord of the Rings character Smeagol.

That danger is climate change. Although human-induced shifts in weather patterns will affect every part of the globe for the coming decades, Turkey is at a particular disadvantage. Misguided energy policies, along with the misuse of freshwater resources, could turn vast swaths of the country into a desert while creating new international headaches for Turkish leaders.

The United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21) that took place in Paris from Nov. 30 to Dec. 11 pledged to reverse climate change by keeping the rise in average global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) — preferably 1.5 degrees Celsius — by 2100. During the COP21, 196 countries agreed to stabilize their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2020 before starting to decrease them. The ultimate goal is to make the world free of carbon dioxide emissions by 2100.

A majority of scientists argue that, much like a greenhouse trapping heat, gases such as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide, which come from agricultural activity and burning fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural gas), cause Earth’s atmosphere to trap excess heat. Aside from melting polar ice caps and causing ocean levels to rise, experts think that warmer temperatures will lead to droughts and massive floods while making certain parts of the planet uninhabitable.