Turkey’s risky Turkmen gamble

The Syrian military, backed by Russian air power, is giving priority to taking control of the Bayirbucak region by intensifying offensive operations against Turkmens and other Syrian armed groups, including al-Qaeda-linked Jabhat al-Nusra.

Metin Gurcan summarizes the Syrian and Russian interests in taking this region in advance of a possible cease-fire: “Studying the field developments and listening to Russian decision-makers, one can discern three basic reasons for this operation: to secure the Latakia region where Russia has its largest military presence — to clean this mountainous and densely forested area from opposition fighters is the prerequisite of further Syrian regime and Russian moves toward Idlib and Aleppo; to expel Chechen Caucasian fighters from Bayirbucak; and — according to Mehmet Akif Okur, assistant professor of international relations at Gazi University — the desire of the Assad regime to secure more defensible, expanded territory before an eventual cease-fire as recommended in the Vienna meetings goes into effect.”

Turkey fears the loss of this region to Syrian government forces, and the potential for further gains in northern Syria by Kurdish armed groups backed by the United States. Fehim Tastekin writes, “In response to the plans by the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) to move westward and expel the Islamic State from Jarablus, Turkey has declared the Euphrates River a red line for the Kurds. Once it is cleared of IS, Turkey is planning to use the Turkmens to control both these areas and the Azez-Aleppo line, which is being considered for a buffer zone. Such plans naturally upped the value of the Turkmen card. Turkey, unable to prevent the Russian bombing against the groups supported by the West and the Gulf, has pushed back with the Turkmens. But the Russians ignored the Turkish moves and expanded their operations to Turkmen Mountain.”