Three days after key parliamentary and Assembly of Experts elections, vote counting is still ongoing in Iran. Final nationwide results are expected to be announced Feb. 29 for the assembly, and on March 1 for parliament. What is clear so far, however, is that in Tehran province — the largest and politically most sensitive constituency — the elections have produced a stunning victory for the Reformist-moderate List of Hope alliance. According to the Interior Ministry, this pro-government coalition has won all 30 parliamentary seats up for grabs in the Tehran constituency. Meanwhile, all but one of the 16 Tehran seats in the 88-member Assembly of Experts will be in the hands of this alliance of Reformists, moderates and government-leaning Principlists.
Tehran is the epicenter of Iranian politics. It is the main theater for the power struggles between competing factions and state institutions, as it is home to virtually all major state bodies. Thus, the outcomes of these dynamics shape the broader political climate in the Islamic Republic. Against this backdrop, the electoral victory of the Reformist-moderate coalition in Tehran is significant and also carries high political symbolism.
The nature of the interplay between the legislative and executive branches will have a major impact on the political future of moderate President Hassan Rouhani, who is expected to seek a second term in the 2017 presidential vote. To this end, the Tehran seats in parliament are of particular significance since they will greatly impact whether the Rouhani administration will be backed by the legislature. The reason for the outsized political weight of these members of parliament is that they are among the most prominent and known across the country, and as such have the capability to set the tone for the overall discourse and political climate.
Economic conditions in Iran will remain the key challenge for the administration. Rouhani needs to address the dire need for managerial development and also foreign direct investment, in line with what Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been demanding in numerous speeches. Such an endeavor needs to be facilitated by legislation. A strong Rouhani-friendly faction in parliament can be crucial to this end.
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