Over the past year, Turkey has been grappling with a rising wave of terrorism and unrest, but its financial markets seem to be little perturbed. As of March 21, the main index of the Istanbul stock exchange, BIST 100, has rallied 20% since Jan. 21, the day it hit its lowest level this year, joining the “bull market” — a term that describes markets in which share prices are rising, encouraging buying.
The index continued to rise — by more than 5% — even after October, when twin suicide bombings struck Ankara, marking the spillover of terrorism to big cities. The Oct. 10 bloodshed was followed by two other bombings in the capital and two in Istanbul, killing a total of 185 people and leaving hundreds of others injured.
In remarks to Al-Monitor, Murat Salar, executive board member at Azimut Securities, said, “The Turkish markets had priced in the risks back in 2015.” The stocks had slumped in the face of “increasing geopolitical risks stemming from Syria, anticipation of the US Federal Reserve hiking interest rates, the devaluation in China and two elections in one year,” Salar said, stressing that the cheaper prices prompted market players to look for a new story to rally on, which eventually came from the United States. “The rally began after it became clear that the Fed’s rate hike would not be as fast as expected,” he added.
Isik Okte, a strategist at TEB Investment, agreed. “Turkish markets have become an investor favorite in 2016. The cheap shares have been propped up by the expansionary policies of central banks in emerging countries. The increase in global liquidity has had a positive impact particularly on bank shares,” he told Al-Monitor.
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