The Turkish economy grew an average of 3% in the past four years, a rate that trails behind the country’s 50-year average of 4.5%. The slowdown is the result of both the weakening global economy and adverse political and economic conditions at home. Yet a much-needed booster has come from an unlikely quarter — the Syrian refugees.

Close to 3 million people have fled to Turkey since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011, and their impact on the economy is becoming more pronounced. Beating expectations, Turkey’s economy grew 5.7% in the last quarter of 2015, the highest rate in the G-20 group after China and India. The overall growth rate for 2015 was 4%, again a surprise compared to the previous year, with household consumption contributing 3 percentage points to headline growth. Economists believe Syrian refugees played an important part in boosting consumption spending as it became the driving force of the economy.

In a recent report on the issue, Morgan Stanley economist Ercan Erguzel wrote, “In what appears to be a break with the past, the driver of strong consumption was not consumer loans. … [The] strong correlation between lending and consumption growth has started to diminish since 2013. This trend is also not easily explained by the increase in gross wages and salaries, given that the growth rate in income in real terms in the last two years has not changed significantly. We believe that at least some part of this strong domestic consumption can be explained by the huge refugee influx in the last two years, reaching almost 3 million Syrians currently meeting their basic needs from Turkey. This can also be confirmed from agricultural sector growth, which, at 7.6%Y (4Q trailing), was the strongest rate since 2005.”

The refugee influx in 2015 was the biggest since the Syrian crisis began. According to UNHCR figures, nearly 1 million people took refuge in Turkey, with the total now exceeding 2.7 million.