During his first decade in power, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan won widespread respect as a mediator working to resolve international issues. He largely settled Turkey’s problems with neighboring countries, advocated democratic values and presided over a dynamic economy, cashing in on the reputation he had earned. From 2002 through 2012, Turkey’s exports increased fourfold, from $36 billion to $152 billion, boosting economic prosperity and employment in the country.

In recent years, however, the tide has turned. Erdogan’s new problems with neighbors sounded alarm bells for exports, which have dropped to $144 billion. In a medium-term economic program announced at the end of 2015, the government’s projection for this year’s exports was $155.5 billion. The data from the first four months of 2016, however, show that this target is nothing but a dream, with Turkish companies destined to sell even less to international markets this year compared with 2015. According to figures from the Turkish Exporters’ Union (TIM), exports for the period January-April dropped 8.4%, or $4.2 billion, compared with the same period last year.

Yet, one sector stands out in this otherwise gloomy picture: the defense and aviation industry. Exports by Turkish defense companies reached $556 million in the first four months of the year, a 23% increase, up from $460 million for the same period last year, according to TIM.

Latif Aral, head of the Defense and Aviation Industry Exporters’ Union, told Al-Monitor, “I guess we’ll go over the $2 billion mark this year, setting an all-time record.” The revenues of Turkish defense companies have risen from $800 million to $1.6 billion over the past five years.