The winners of Britain’s June 23 referendum used Turkey as a bogeyman to boost their case to leave the European Union. To what extent the “Turkey fear” swayed their victory remains unclear, but one thing is for sure: The outcome has pushed Turkey farther away from the European Union.
A month ahead of the vote, the “leave” block made Turkey a central topic in its campaign, linking it deliberately to the refugee crisis that threatens European institutions and democracy. Stoking popular fears, the Brexiteers claimed, “Since the birthrate in Turkey is so high, we can expect to see an additional million people added to the UK population from Turkey alone within eight years.” They went as far as to suggest that “because of the EU’s free movement laws, the government will not be able to exclude Turkish criminals from entering the UK.” To soothe his compatriots, Prime Minister David Cameron felt compelled to declare that “at the current rate of progress [Turkey] will probably get round to joining in about the year 3000.”
Now, a week after the Brexit vote, Turkey is opening a new chapter in its EU accession talks — Chapter 33, titled “Financial and Budgetary Provisions.” The inauguration, scheduled for June 30, was agreed as part of the refugee deal package that Turkey and the EU sealed March 18. So, does this debunk Cameron’s assertion that Turkey is a thousand years away from EU membership? Are the conservative and nationalist Brexiteers right after all? Is Turkey really on the way to membership?
The answer is no. The opening of Chapter 33 has no added value in terms of energizing Turkey’s accession process, for it covers post-membership arrangements on contributions that countries make to the EU budget once they have joined in. In other words, it has no transformative impact that brings the candidate country closer to membership like other chapters that go by the titles “Agriculture and Rural Development,” “Judiciary and Fundamental Rights,” “Justice, Freedom and Security” or “Environment.”
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