Municipal elections in the West Bank and Gaza Strip are slated for Oct. 8. On the face of it, this is a local matter that should not be of much concern to Israel’s decision-makers or the public at large. However, the Hamas-Fatah agreement for holding municipal elections that was reached in the setting of their reconciliation efforts and following their endless talks since the May 2011 Cairo Agreement is not only an internal-local issue. It is also liable to further complicate the already complex relationships between Israel and the Palestinian Authority (PA).

For the first time in over a decade, the elections will take place in some 300 municipalities, villages and regional councils across the West Bank and Gaza. The last time PA President Mahmoud Abbas agreed to hold elections — or more precisely was forced to hold them by former US President George W. Bush — was in 2006. Back then, Hamas took everyone by surprise, winning the seats to the Palestinian parliament by a landslide. And even though the upcoming elections are neither for the presidency nor for the parliament, senior Fatah officials, as well as Hamas officials, are nevertheless convinced that they will see Hamas win over a large number of local authorities in the West Bank, thus indicating that it is poised to take over power centers outside Gaza.

Ever since Hamas’ coup in Gaza in 2007, the areas of the PA have been clearly divided: Gaza is under Hamas’ control whereas the West Bank remains under Fatah’s near full control. It is not unreasonable to assume that this division is now about to change. Speaking to Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity, senior Fatah officials have said that Abbas does not rule out the possibility that Hamas will see victory in many local authorities across the West Bank and could even cause the tables to turn in major towns such as Hebron, Jenin and Nablus.

So why did Abbas agree to hold elections whose results could embarrass both him and his movement? And on what is the previous scenario that foresees a significant achievement for Hamas based? Although the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research has yet to release the results of its public opinion polls, senior Fatah officials are fully aware of the trends on the ground. During the 2006 elections for the Palestinian parliament, Hamas managed to win thanks to an across-the-board protest of the majority of the Palestinian public that wanted change and wanted to take revenge against the members of the Fatah movement whom they perceived to be corrupt and responsible for the economic situation and the ongoing Israeli occupation.