Now that control of the Turkey-Syria border has been wrested from the Islamic State (IS) between al-Rai and Jarablus, what will Ankara's next target be: IS in al-Bab or the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) in Manbij?
On Sept. 4, 12 days into Operation Euphrates Shield, Free Syrian Army (FSA) elements supported by a Turkish armored task force entered al-Rai and took over the 98-kilometer (61-mile) stretch of border. Since 2014, this area had been the main supply route for IS personnel, money, guns and logistics, and the group's main link with the outside world. The question now asked by all concerned is: What next?
Ankara has three possible courses of action:
- Be content with the gains in northern Syria so far, and instead of expanding the area of operations, fortify the border stretch between al-Rai and Jarablus and take steps to prevent IS from returning. But sources in Ankara generally believe that genuine border security would require the FSA to move at least 25-30 kilometers south.
- Expand the operation toward al-Bab where IS has dug in. This choice would mean Ankara is giving priority to combating IS in northern Syria.
- Advance 40 kilometers south of Jarablus toward Manbij, where YPG forces are in control. Obviously this option would suggest that Ankara is giving priority to combating the YPG.
Capturing the border stretch that until now was controlled by IS serves the interests of everyone but IS — certainly the United States and Russia. All had agreed on the need to rid this area of IS. But we have also arrived at a critical juncture in Operation Euphrates Shield where joint interests are about to become conflicting interests.
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