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On Jan. 27, Russia Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov hosted a group of Syrian opposition representatives in Moscow. After the talks earlier this week in Astana, Kazakhstan, Moscow was looking to double down on its mediation role, even though big news wasn’t expected from the meeting at Russia’s Foreign Ministry.
A Russian journalist covering the event was skeptical: “These aren’t the militant opposition groups that were present in Astana; this is just some ‘tamed opposition.’” Indeed, the people involved in the Moscow meeting were mainly from the so-called Hmeymim, Moscow-Cairo and Astana opposition groups that are deemed Russia-friendly, though it took Moscow time and effort to make it happen.
The Saudi-backed High Negotiations Committee of the Syrian opposition (HNC), which had also been invited to the talks, refused to attend, allegedly demanding an “individual meeting” with Russians. Addressing the opposition leaders in his opening remarks, Lavrov complained, “If we always squared up with [the HNC’s] position we’d never start negotiations on the Syria peace settlement.” Another opposition formation, the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces (SNC) also canceled its meeting with Lavrov and declined the draft of a constitution offered by Russia.
Lavrov’s two-hour meeting with 10 representatives from opposition groups — regardless of how powerful they are — was indicative of Moscow’s approach to the Syria peace process. It’s critical for Moscow at this stage to get as many intra-Syrian and regional stakeholders to support Russia’s mediation efforts, and ideally to share its own vision for how the process should be implemented. The approach seeks to raise Russia’s regional credibility and its ability to offer constructive solutions, and leans on Moscow’s flexibility to work with all the interested players.
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