In a Nov. 17 article for Al-Monitor, I had explained why the Turkish economy could be headed for a crisis: “The growth figure for the third quarter [of 2016] is likely to be negative and around 0.5%, meaning that the Turkish economy is contracting for the first time since mid-2009. Moreover, a series of indicators point to a continued slowdown thereafter. In short, the spring for the Turkish economy is over, and it is transiting to a fall season of an unknown length. Whether the fall will give way to winter or a serious crisis also remains unclear.”

On Dec. 12, the Turkish Statistical Institute revealed a growth rate that was well below the expectations — the economy had contracted 1.8% in the third quarter. The existing growth data set, meanwhile, was revised according to European Union accounting norms, which led to a 20% increase in the country’s previous gross domestic product (GDP). The new calculation method sparked lengthy debates and controversy, while producing the worse-than-expected growth rate.

But it didn’t end there. On Dec. 28, the statistical institute revealed the seasonally and calendar adjusted GDP figures, according to which the economy had contracted 2.7% in the third quarter from the second one. Moreover, revised data showed that GDP in the first quarter had shrunk 0.4% from the previous one, followed by a 1.1% growth rate in the second quarter and the bruising 2.7% negative growth in the third one.

Detailed figures paint even a gloomier outlook. The manufacturing industry — the backbone of the economy — continued to shrink for a third quarter in a row, with contraction reaching nearly 5% in the third quarter. The construction sector also plunged into recession in the third quarter, shrinking some 5%. The agricultural and services sectors had contracted by about 1% and 2%, respectively, since the beginning of 2016.