Turkey’s Operation Euphrates Shield, which entered its 170th day Feb. 11 having seen the loss of 65 Turkish soldiers, is at its most critical juncture. In an operation launched the night of Feb. 7 from Aqil Hill, a dominating feature west of al-Bab, about 1,300 Turkish troops (700 commandos, 400 tank personnel and about 200 special forces) and nearly 2,000 Free Syrian Army (FSA) fighters took part. Thirteen Turkish soldiers were killed in the operation. Security sources told Al-Monitor that about 800 Islamic State (IS) militants and 10,000 civilians are still in the town center of al-Bab. IS uses these civilians as "live shields," and the Turkish army and the FSA now face tough urban warfare as they move toward the town center.
As of noon Feb. 11, Turkish troops and the FSA had captured al-Bab silos, the al-Bab Sport Center in the west and the Zahra Mosque area in al-Bab's northwest. Turkish military sources said they have secured 25% of the town center and that heavy clashes are ongoing in the western and northern neighborhoods of al-Bab.
On another nearby front, the Syrian army and its allied militias have seized the Abu Taltal area about 2 miles to the south of al-Bab and are pushing toward the town. If this advance continues, in a day or two the Syrian army and its allied militias will be entering al-Bab, raising the specter of a clash between Turkish army/FSA forces and the Syrian army. There are already reports of rocket exchanges and occasional clashes between the FSA and Syrian army militias to the southwest of al-Bab. In short, the ground has become hot at al-Bab and the next week or so may well determine the fate of Turkey’s Operation Euphrates Shield that was launched Aug. 24.
There were two other important recent developments. First was the arrival of CIA chief Michael Pompeo to Ankara on Feb. 9. We were told that on the agenda of his meetings in Ankara were combating IS, the Raqqa operation, the future of Syria, Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria, the latest situation in Mosul and the Kurdistan Workers Party's Syrian offshoots the Democratic Union Party and the People's Protection Units (YPG), which Turkey considers terrorists. Ankara was also prepared to strongly raise the extradition of Gulen movement leader Fethullah Gulen from the United States.
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