As pressure builds on Egyptian livelihoods following the devaluation of the pound and the slashing of fuel subsidies in November, some analysts are wondering if another uprising is looming on the horizon for Egypt. They warn that a new wave of unrest would be bloodier than the 2011 uprising and could spell disaster for the country, still reeling from the turbulent post-revolution transition.

Since the Egyptian pound was floated, inflation has skyrocketed to its highest level in decades, reaching almost 30% in January (up 5% over the previous month). Prices of basic food items, medicine, transport and housing have soared, prompting Egyptians to cut spending to make ends meet. The prices of some basic food items have shot up by up to 40%, according to CAPMAS, the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics. President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has more than once exhorted Egyptians to tighten their belts, commending them for enduring “the difficult circumstances” but he has also warned that further cutbacks “are inevitable.”

While Egyptians have largely heeded the call for restraint, there was a rare show of anger when protests broke out in at least four Egyptian provinces March 7. The demonstrations were triggered by bread shortages in some bakeries after Supply Minister Ali Moselhy announced a new bread subsidies system that he defended as “necessary to curb waste and corruption.” Hundreds of demonstrators blocked roads and cut railways in Alexandria, Giza, Kafr El Sheikh and Minya in protest at the minister’s abrupt decision to reduce the share of bread allotted to holders of paper ration cards to 500 loaves per bakery a day from the original 1,000 and 4,000 loaves (depending on the number of consumers in the bakery’s vicinity.) The minister said the paper cards were “outdated” and needed to be replaced by the newer electronic smart cards introduced in 2014 — a step he insisted “would go a long way in curbing misuse and profiteering by bakery owners.” The share of smart-card holders (five loaves of subsidized bread per person a day) would not be affected, he said.

The decision to implement the new system was quickly reversed, however, over fears that the simmering bread crisis could provoke wider tumult. Seeking to allay citizens’ concerns that the move was a prelude to a reduction in their quotas of subsidized bread, Moselhy held a televised press conference on the day of the protests, apologizing to “all citizens who had not received bread” and asserting that their quotas would remain untouched. Promising to resolve the crisis within 48 hours, he blamed bakery owners for the crisis, hinting they were making profits off the subsidized flour they received from the government.