This week’s visit of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani to Moscow was a much-anticipated event not only in Russia and Iran, but throughout the region.
The parties intending to emphasize its significance brought up the numbers: the first foreign trip of Rouhani this year, the first encounter in a purely bilateral setting, the ninth meeting of Vladimir Putin and Rouhani in total. Outside observers were racking their brains guessing what issue would dominate the agenda. Some suggested it would be arms purchases and energy deals, while others believed it would be more about strengthening bilateral trade and economic relations. At the end of the day, it mattered little since all of this — and a lot more — was to be thoroughly discussed during the two-day visit. What mattered a lot was the very context before and around the meeting.
Rouhani’s meeting with Putin came after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan both had separate trips to Moscow. In this sense, Rouhani’s visit fit in the puzzle of Russia’s own dealings with the three most powerful regional states. They all have divergent strategic interests and would ideally want to have Moscow support their cause or at least to not act as a spoiler for it. Russia, in its turn, seeks to have a balanced relationship with all three, sticking to its approach of “keeping the contacts open with all the regional players” even if they are in dire opposition to one another. Therefore, in his opening sentence, Putin thought it was necessary to emphasize: “Iran is our good neighbor, a stable and reliable partner.” As in the case with Netanyahu, who was apparently seeking guarantees from Putin that Russia would not — directly or circumstantially — aid Iranian influence in the region in the post-Islamic State (IS) Syria and Iraq, Rouhani hoped to persuade Putin that Russia should not in any way help Israel in its counter-Iranian policies or share sensitive intelligence information — currently a big chunk of Moscow-Tel Aviv bilateral dealings — that might seriously hurt Iranian positions. As if preempting any speculation on this issue, Rouhani in his own remarks to Putin noted, “Our cooperation is not aimed at third countries.”
Another important aspect of the meeting was Iran’s concern that Russia could adopt a new attitude toward Iran in light of a potential “normalization” with the United States under President Donald Trump. Moscow recognized that Tehran was seriously concerned that the Kremlin would use it as a bargaining chip for better ties with the White House. So in the case with Israel, Rouhani may have needed if not solid guarantees then at least some sense of confidence in Putin that this wouldn’t happen. Coincidentally, the US Department of State has recently imposed new sanctions against eight Russian companies “in connection with the Iran, North Korea and Syria Nonproliferation Act,” angering the Kremlin that stated the move contradicted Trump’s voiced desire to have good relations with Russia. The next day, Iran announced its own counter-sanctions against American military companies allegedly involved in supporting Israel’s settlements. Putin and Rouhani expressed their anti-sanctions sentiment in the final joint document the two leaders signed that said, “Unilateral sanctions against states are illegitimate.”
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