The intelligence arm of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) disagrees with the assessment recently heard coming from the mouths of the Iraqi army’s top brass: Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, leader of the Islamic State (IS), is currently in Mosul and is personally leading IS fighters in the desperate, defensive battle for the city.

“According to our appraisal, he is simply not there,” said Lt. Col. N. (name withheld), head of the Global Jihad Desk in the Analysis and Research Division of IDF Intelligence. “Regarding his exact location there are several appraisals, but we think that he is not in Mosul.”

According to Israeli intelligence, the fall of Mosul is just a matter of time, and even IS’ headquarters in Syria, Raqqa, is in danger. “The threat to Raqqa is increasing,” said the lieutenant colonel. “The Syrian Democratic Forces [SDF], which includes mainly Kurdish fighters, is approaching Raqqa and has been gaining the support of local tribes. The question we are focusing on now is, what will happen to IS on the day after Mosul and Raqqa fall?” Israel is naturally more interested in the Raqqa front, which is geographically much closer to it than Mosul, which is in the heart of Iraq.

“Who will rule Raqqa? Will it be [Syrian President Bashar] al-Assad’s regime, the Kurds, other forces together with locals?” Lt. Col. N. wondered aloud. “What kind of configuration will Islamic State have after most of its territorial assets are torn away? We have developed a research discipline in which we analyze the local forces and tribes found in each territory: with whom do they cooperate, what are their loyalties and network of interests. We map out all the things that IS needs in order to continue to cling to the Islamic State [caliphate] concept. According to these variables, we try to assess what will happen in the future.”