Despite previously dismissing the idea of stepping aside in Iran's presidential race, Tehran Mayor Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf withdrew May 15 in favor of fellow conservative candidate Ebrahim Raisi. This unexpected move has left political analysts wondering whether it will actually benefit Raisi or, conversely, the incumbent president, Hassan Rouhani, in the May 19 election.

Ghalibaf, a three-time presidential candidate, had run a controversial campaign. On May 8, his campaign adviser, Mahmud Razavi, had tweeted, “Poll results show that Ghalibaf now has more votes than Rouhani and thus will not — under any circumstances — withdraw from this race.” On the same day, Ghalibaf's political adviser, Hossein Ghorbanzadeh, also editor-in-chief of the daily Hamshahri, which is run by the Tehran municipality, tweeted, “If Ghalibaf withdraws, Rouhani will be elected in the first round of voting. He will not, under any circumstances, withdraw from the race. This is a rumor propagated by Rouhani supporters with the hope of inciting fear.”

That said, the opinion polls were not favorable for Ghalibaf, especially after the third and final presidential debate May 12. According to the US-based International Perspectives for Public Opinion (IPPO), his voter support had dropped from 26% on May 6 to 21% on May 14, and the downward trend was continuing. Moreover, most Principlist organizations had rallied behind Raisi, making the situation increasingly difficult for Ghalibaf.

Notably, Galibaf's statement on May 15, four days before the election, did not use the word “withdraw.” It read, “What is important at this point in time is preserving the interests of the people, the country, and the revolution. Considering that this great ideal can only be achieved through a change in the status quo, fundamental and crucial decisions must be made. Therefore, in order to protect this great ideal, I ask my supporters across the country to devote all their potential to supporting our dear brother Hojjat al-Islam wal-Moslemeen [clerical rank below ayatollah] Seyed Ebrahim Raisi and the success of the ‘Government of Work and Dignity’ [Raisi’s campaign slogan].”