One can never be sure what's going through Recep Tayyip Erdogan's mind when he lashes out at Israel. At a conference on Palestine in Istanbul May 8, Turkey’s mercurial president criticized Israel for “racist and discriminatory” practices against Palestinians. Erdogan added that “the only solution" is "the establishment of a fully sovereign and independent Palestinian state, with East Jerusalem as its capital, along the lines of 1967.” Erdogan also called upon the world’s Muslims to visit Jerusalem “in support of Palestinians.”

Israel’s response came almost immediately. First, the Israeli Foreign Ministry tweeted, “Those who systematically violate human rights in their own country shouldn't preach to region's only true democracy.” Meanwhile, true to his cerebral style, Israeli President Reuven Rivlin responded to Erdogan’s remarks by claiming that Jerusalem has had a “Jewish majority since Ottoman rule” and that “Israel will continue to ensure freedom of religion for all.” (There is no consensus among historians regarding Rivlin’s point about a Jewish majority during Ottoman times.)

But why would Erdogan threaten to derail Turkish-Israeli relations after it took so much time and effort to reconcile the two sides in June 2016?

Selin Nasi, a Middle East analyst and columnist for Hurriyet Daily News and the weekly newspaper Salom, responded to Al-Monitor in an email: “This sudden change of tone toward Israel might be to mobilize the domestic audience around the Palestinian issue. Even though the [presidential] referendum is over, the government acts as if it is still in an election mode. Escalating tensions … might be a strategy to mobilize domestic support and thus to lay the ground for snap elections before 2019.” Nasi added, “The timing of this diplomatic spat is important because May 14 (the fifth day of Iyar) is Israel’s Independence Day, and the following day marks the Palestinians’ Nakba, the Day of Catastrophe.”