Iran wins as GCC unity collapses

Hassan Ahmadian explains that Iran’s call for dialogue in reaction to the Qatar dispute is already paying dividends. Tehran’s tack has been to back Doha while calling for diplomacy, seizing the high ground amid what most parties would probably agree has been an excessive and calamitous turn of events for Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) unity. The US-Saudi-Islamic summit, which sought to rally Sunni states along a sectarian fault line against Iran, can now safely be put in the “farce” or “flop” columns.

No doubt the bravado of Iran’s leaders following US President Donald Trump’s visit to Riyadh last month masked at least some anxiety about a deepening US-Saudi relationship, as well as grudging acknowledgment of the kingdom’s impressive display of diplomatic convening power. But the Qatar dispute has been a windfall for Iran’s regional posture. “A rift among the pro- and anti-Brotherhood camps in the region is strategically in Iran’s favor,” Ahmadian writes. “Saudi Arabia tried to avoid such a split by prioritizing Iran as the main threat. Yet having Qatar and Turkey versus the UAE [United Arab Emirates] and Egypt in the same boat turned out to be overly problematic for Riyadh. In that sense, the Saudi move against Qatar is thoroughly counterproductive for its anti-Iran campaign in the region, and Iran should not help Riyadh correct its mistakes."

Iran is also leveraging the Gulf dispute to its advantage in Syria. Ahmadian explains that “standing with Qatar can help strengthen Tehran’s ties with Doha, Ankara and their Brotherhood allies, who — possibly moving toward a regional understanding of sorts with Iran and its allies — can play constructive roles in Syria, Yemen and elsewhere in the region. Additionally, it can hinder Saudi Arabia’s capacity to assemble coalitions aimed against Iran, Qatar and other nations in the future as well.”