Iran is gradually increasing its support for the Houthi rebels in Yemen. Rather than eliminating the Iranian presence in the country, the Saudi-led war is giving Tehran the opportunity to become more influential there than ever. The Houthis remain fiercely independent of Iran, but they will need Tehran's backing more as the stalemate continues.

The Iranian connection with the Houthi movement dates back over a decade, before the Arab Spring, to the battles between the Houthis and the government of President Ali Abdullah Saleh. Backed by the Saudis, Saleh tried to crush the Houthis in a series of military campaigns. Iran began providing training and expertise for the Houthi forces at camps in Lebanon run by Hezbollah and in Iran by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The Houthis openly emulated Hezbollah as a role model and successfully thwarted both Saleh and the Saudis. But Iran did not gain direct input into Houthi decision-making as it has with its Lebanese partner.

Iran reportedly discouraged the Houthis from seizing Sanaa in September 2015, fearing that would provoke civil war. With the help of former President Saleh, who switched sides by 2015, the Houthis did take the capital, which precipitated the crisis leading to the Saudi intervention. So far from being pawns of Iran, the rebels ignored its advice.

The rebels have also been quick to deny any plans for a future permanent Iranian military base in the country. When the commander of the Iranian navy suggested that Iran would acquire a base in Yemen, the Houthis rejected the idea. Observers in Sanaa report that the Iranian presence is hidden from view and operates discretely behind the scenes.