As the Islamic State (IS) is weakening, France and Russia seem to be keeping each other posted on their respective agendas in the Middle East and North Africa.
- Ambassador Franck Gellet, Paris’ special envoy to Syria, paid a discreet visit Aug. 30 to Moscow, where he and Russian experts discussed the Syrian crisis.
- French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian visited Moscow Sept. 8 and met with his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov. They discussed Libya and Syria. Both sides have noticeably expanded their common ground on the Syrian crisis, especially regarding chemical weapons and humanitarian concerns.
- Both of those visits can be considered follow-ups to the May meeting in Versailles between French President Emmanuel Macron and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
During the summer, Macron gave an interview to European media in which he outlined a pragmatic approach for French diplomacy in the Middle East and North Africa. He emphasized that Paris was no longer demanding that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad step down as a precondition to starting peace talks with his opposition — which seemed to disappoint most French diplomats. Yet, more recently, in a Sept. 1 interview on French radio RTL, Le Drian — who is known for being more pragmatic than his predecessors — seemed to endorse the old mantra of “Assad must go.” This statement could be connected to the speech Assad delivered Aug. 20 before Syrian ambassadors, in which he slammed Western powers and said, “There will be no security cooperation or opening of embassies or roles for some states that say they are looking for a solution until they cut their ties with terrorism in a clear and unambiguous way.”
A non-official French source who recently traveled to Syria and met with high-ranking Syrian officials told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity that leaders in Damascus are not willing to consider France as an option for Syria’s reconstruction phase. “They will not ask for money from Paris," he said. "They would rather consider China, Russia and Iran. In the EU, only the Czech Republic might get some contracts, since it has not closed its diplomatic mission during the war.”
Paris is trying to reduce the diplomatic cost of its miscalculation in calling for Assad’s ouster, while finding a middle ground between maintaining its ideological posture on the Syrian crisis and being realistic about the possible consequences.
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