Will Erdogan defy Russia, US over Afrin?
Turkey’s plan to launch an operation to take Syria's Afrin faces major difficulties, yet if Erdogan succeeds even partially it will boost his image at home.
Concerned that time is running against Turkey’s interests in the region, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has ordered a military operation into Syria aimed at taking the Kurdish-held enclave of Afrin, only a stone’s throw from the Turkish border.
Turkish press reports say the army has already started shelling the enclave from across the border. Whether the main operation will go ahead is not certain, though. If it does, it will be a high-stakes move whose outcome, analysts say, remains uncertain.
Many believe this development reflects Ankara’s anger with the United States and Russia. Both powers are supporting Syrian Kurdish groups that Turkey considers to be its enemies.
Turkey’s failure to convince the United States to end its support for the Kurds and Moscow’s refusal to accept Ankara’s demand to prevent the same Kurds from participating in efforts to reach a Syrian settlement have left Ankara deeply frustrated.
