If Turkey's military operation in Syria's Afrin province proceeds at its current pace, Ankara will very soon have to make its most critical decision of the drive: whether to enter the center of Afrin city and conduct urban warfare, which could shorten the offensive but risk potentially heavy political-diplomatic risks, or set up a long-term blockade.

On Feb. 3, a Turkish Leopard 2 A4 tank was hit with a 9M113 Konkurs anti-tank guided missile that killed six soldiers — five in the tank and one near it. That same day, one soldier was killed in Afrin clashes and another when the Turkish border town of Kilis was shelled, making it the deadliest day yet for the Turkish army since the operation began Jan. 20 with the support of the Free Syrian Army (FSA). Two more soldiers were killed in clashes Feb. 4 with the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG). Official statements from the Turkish General Staff said 947 YPG fighters had been killed in the operation, while 13 Turkish soldiers were killed and 57 wounded.

Civilian casualties are reported on both sides. According to the Turkish government, 82 rockets had been fired from Afrin into Kilis and Hatay, Turkey, killing nine civilians and injuring more than 100. There are also reports of civilian losses at Afrin, which has been under heavy attacks by Turkish warplanes, assault helicopters and artillery and rocket fire.

The first phase of the operation moved slowly because of heavy rains and fog in its first week, but it is about to conclude. In this phase, Turkish tanks, armored vehicles and the affiliated FSA elements with close air support and intensive artillery/rocket fire entered the Afrin area from nine beachheads to disperse the YPG. These ground forces advanced 8-10 kilometers (5-6 miles), capturing dominant hills and critical villages on their routes. Terrain between these captured locations is slowly being cleared.