While speculation was rife this week about whether Turkey's next move in Syria would be toward Tell Rifaat or Manbij, Russia unexpectedly withdrew its troops March 27 from Tell Rifaat.
The Turkish-backed Free Syrian Army (FSA) now controls the area around Tell Rifaat, while according to unconfirmed reports, the forces of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad control the city proper. The area is important for Ankara because the Menagh military air base in the city is a critical logistics point to reach northern Aleppo and Idlib. Thus, control provides the FSA with the strategic and psychological upper hand in the region.
“We will take Tell Rifaat under our control and thus achieve the goal of the operation. We ask our interlocutors to fulfill their commitments about Manbij,” President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said March 26. “The US must take over control of Manbij from the terror groups as soon as possible. If that terror organization is not removed from Manbij, then we will have to do it ourselves together with the people of the area.”
Turkey's offensive is an open-ended, effect-based operation aiming to influence the strategic preferences of Washington and Moscow. So Ankara’s calls on Russia to withdraw its forces from Tell Rifaat are also signaling the United States that Turkey may expand the operation to Manbij.
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