Southwest Syria could be the next confrontation zone in Syria’s multiple regional wars. The US-Russian cease-fire agreement is collapsing, except in the buffer zone on the Iraqi-Jordanian border. The Syrian regime and its allies are making their way through to the Nassib border crossing and the Golan Heights. These new dynamics are altering the calculations of Jordan and Israel, while further weakening the armed opposition on the southern front.

On March 12, the Syrian military launched airstrikes on Daraa province, the first violation of the cease-fire agreement. Civilians began to flee these areas, as the Russian military is using scare tactics. Spokesperson of the Khmeimim base, Alexander Ivanov, had warned a day before on March 11 that “after securing the perimeters of the capital [city] Damascus, [we seek] to eliminate terrorists present south of the country."

The United States promptly called for restraint and held an urgent meeting for the armed opposition groups operating under the Amman-based Military Operations Center, which has been inactive since late last year. Pro-opposition news websites have speculated that Washington is planning a wide-ranging military campaign in southwestern Syria.

However, a Pentagon official told Al-Monitor that the United States is focused on defeating the Islamic State (IS) in southeastern Syria and is "not involved in monitoring de-escalation zones.” This comment from the Pentagon is noteworthy, considering the presumed existence of the Amman Center for cease-fire control in southwestern Syria, which includes Quneitra, Daraa and Suweida provinces.