New Iraqi government will again require Iranian blessing
While Iran may not be the winner in Iraq’s election, it will likely remain the final broker.
If Haider al-Abadi retains the Iraqi premiership, he will have done so with Iran’s blessing. Iran and Iraq have maintained good relations throughout Abadi’s tenure. Abadi owes Iran and the Popular Mobilization Units, including those backed by Tehran, for their decisive role in responding to the ill-fated Iraqi Kurdish referendum last year, a huge win for Abadi.
Abadi may not be the first choice among Iran’s leaders, but they have a well-established working relationship. Abadi also depends on Washington, but Tehran will likely be the last stop on the road to a new government in Iraq.
Expect Iran to ask for some shift in Iraqi statements toward the United States as its tax on a final deal. Given the more aggressive US approach to Iran’s "malign behavior," Tehran will be sure that the next Iraqi government makes a point — somehow, some way — that Baghdad will not be squarely in the American camp. Abadi, while seeking to preserve strong ties with the United States, has also said that Iraq should not be an arena for US-Iran conflict.
There's no question that the surprise showing of the Sadrist movement with 54 seats represents progress toward an independent Iraqi identity, including perhaps a more youthful demographic. In second place, however, came Iran’s preferred group, the Fatah Alliance, with 47 seats. Abadi’s Victory Alliance came in third with 42.
