For governments, times of high economic growth — when the positive expectations of consumers and producers rise — are typically the best time to call elections. During the Justice and Development Party's (AKP) 15 years in power, it has benefited from such favorable timing, with economic vitality pleasing voters and swaying the polls in its favor. This time, however, Turkey’s economic growth — a staggering 7.4% in 2017 — is blowing back into Ankara’s face.

In an abrupt decision last month, the government brought presidential and parliamentary polls forward, to June 24 from Nov. 3, 2019. The move appeared driven by a sense of urgency to weather the polls as soon as possible before the country’s economic downturn erupts into the full-blown crisis that many experts are predicting.

Pundits had been abuzz with talk of early elections for months. Mahfi Egilmez, a well-respected economic commentator and a former head of the Treasury, wrote as early as January that the AKP would likely bring the polls forward, pointing to the party’s successful election record in times of high growth as well as the January expectation surveys, which reflected an optimistic sentiment among consumers and producers alike.

In the ensuing months, however, the expectation surveys deteriorated. They indicated that consumers and economic actors were growing pessimistic about any improvement in the inflation and unemployment rates, expected no increase in their incomes, would refrain from investment and spending in the near future, and saw little prospect for a decrease in the current account deficit.