Russian President Vladimir Putin is banking that he can persuade his US counterpart Donald Trump that Russia offers the best chance to allow US troops to leave Syria “very soon,” as Trump has indicated he would like to do.

Preparations are underway for a US-Russia presidential summit, where Syria will be at the top of the agenda. Putin’s leverage in Syria is unmatched, as he has managed complicated relations with all of the key parties — the Syrian government, Iran, Turkey and Israel — while keeping up regular contacts with Arab Gulf leaders. On June 1, Putin welcomed Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the crown prince of Abu Dhabi and deputy supreme commander of the United Arab Emirates' armed forces, to Moscow.

As we wrote here nearly a year ago, in July 2017, Putin “welcomes and needs US partnership in stabilizing Syria, but whose [Putin's] leverage with Damascus, Tehran and Ankara could be weakened, rather than strengthened, by closer ties with the United States.” This may still be the case, but the Russian diplomatic stock has surged since then. In addition to Putin’s relentless personal engagement, backed by military muscle in Syria, the US withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) has been a windfall for the Russian president, increasing the value of his good offices for Tehran. 

Putin has also begun to deftly capitalize on the friction between the United States and Europe over tariffs and the JCPOA, as we reported here last week in the context of French President Emmanuel Macron's call for “European financial sovereignty” at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. Igor Delanoe writes that “by attempting to cautiously build bridges with Russia regarding Syria, Paris wants to show it's not aligned with the United States on all Middle Eastern issues. In that sense, Trump’s decision to walk out on the Iran deal gives France more room when it comes to Syria. Distancing itself from Washington’s regional policy is part of France’s independent stance.”