Since President Recep Tayyip Erdogan left global investors in “shock and disbelief” during a visit to London in mid-May, Turkey’s Central Bank has twice raised interest rates to salvage the plummeting Turkish lira, ending months of inaction amid Erdogan’s stiff opposition to rate hikes. The two sharp hikes — on May 23 and June 7 — reflect Erdogan’s grudging acquiescence to the rules of the game, but beyond that, of Turkey’s growing reliance on global money that leaves little room for waywardness for political actors at home.
In media interviews and meetings with institutional investors in London, Erdogan had argued he would fight inflation with lower interest rates, a theory that defies economic orthodoxy, while expressing his intent for a more centralized economic management and greater intervention in Central Bank decisions if he wins the June 24 elections.
Amid the ensuing market jitters, the Turkish lira sank to historic lows, with the price of the dollar shooting up to more than 4.9 liras. In an emergency meeting May 23, the Central Bank hiked its key rate by a staggering 300 basis points to 16.5%. As a result, the lira strengthened to about 4.6 against the dollar and began to linger there.
This, however, was not enough to calm the jitters, especially as Turkey grapples with double-digit inflation. In late May, Deputy Prime Minister Mehmet Simsek, who oversees the economy, and Central Bank Gov. Murat Cetinkaya headed back to London to reassure investors that the Central Bank had a free hand for more rate hikes in the coming period.
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