After two long days of fierce clashes between Israel and Palestinian groups in Gaza, the flames began to subside July 15. Hamas and the Islamic Jihad stopped firing their rockets and mortar shells, and Israel halted its aerial attacks. Both sides appeared to have had enough, but Israel nevertheless deployed more Iron Dome missile defense batteries that afternoon, including in the Greater Tel Aviv region. It wanted to send a message to Yahya Sinwar, Hamas' leader in Gaza: Israel is not afraid of a more comprehensive conflict, and the situation could deteriorate into all-out war in a matter of hours. 

According to Israeli security sources, the message was intended to make it perfectly clear to Hamas that its assessment of Israel’s intentions was mistaken. “Until now,” a senior Israeli Cabinet minister told Al-Monitor on the condition of anonymity, “Hamas believed that we were too busy on the northern front to risk opening another front along the Gaza border. Well, they were wrong. We do not want a conflict in the south, but we cannot allow the current situation to continue either. If the terrorism from the incendiary kites doesn’t stop, Hamas will find itself at war with Israel, and this time, there is no assurance that their regime in Gaza will continue to exist when the fighting is over.”

To further complicate matters, during the night of July 15-16, two unidentified aircraft attacked a Syrian military base in the Aleppo region, in northern Syria. While Israel has not commented on the attack, it has been attributed to Israel's air force. On the morning of July 16, news agencies reported that the base is also being used by Iran and that nine Iranian and 13 Syrian soldiers were killed in the strike. These events in Gaza and in Syria are indicative of a quiet shift in Israeli policy.

Until now, Israel did everything it could to avoid igniting its southern front, so it could focus its energy and preparedness on the war of attrition with Iran to the north. Now, however, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman — facing intense pressure from the right in the street and in the Cabinet — are signaling that if they have no other choice, they will fight on both fronts simultaneously. Neither Netanyahu nor Liberman has any desire to juggle two active fronts. They are up to their necks in the north with the effort to expel Iran from Syrian territory. In this regard, they are keeping a close eye on the July 16 meeting in Helsinki between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump.