On Aug. 24, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusglu visited Moscow for talks with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov. The situation in Idlib dominated the agenda.

At a joint news conference following the talks, Lavrov said, “There are many civilians there and there’s an armed opposition, which is interested in participating in the settlement processes. There are several tens of thousands of militants from the so-called Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, formerly Jabhat al-Nusra group, who are trying to control this entire territory and hamper the efforts, in particular, undertaken by Turkey to separate healthy opposition from terrorist groups. These matters are being discussed by our foreign ministries. They are also discussed by our respective military, as well as our special services. We are not done yet. We will have additional meetings with the participation of all our colleagues, so we will be able to provide more information a little later.” (Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar also was in Moscow on Aug. 24.)

Meanwhile, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad continues to move his army formations and militia units toward Idlib. Russian special forces and other military professionals are also converging in the de-escalation zone that is delineated by border posts. Russia has already managed to force a reconciliation between the opposition and the regime twice — in northern Homs and in the southwestern region. Moscow would like to repeat this scenario in Idlib by using a limited military campaign to suppress radical opposition hotbeds and guaranteeing that the rebel factions supported by Turkey would not resist the campaign. Firas Tlass, a businessman whose father once served as Syria's defense minister, said the agreements between Russia and Turkey seemingly demanded to deploy Russian military police and civilian security institutions in Idlib. An Al-Monitor source in the armed opposition said the most discussed topic in the province at this point is the prospect of handing weapons heavier than 23 mm anti-aircraft twin-barreled autocannons over to Turkish army. 

However, to keep the country in order, to expand Russian influence in Syrian force structures and to maintain at least a mere facade of a political resolution process, Russia needs at least two things. First is Russian participation in the creation of a revamped Syrian military where some former rebel units and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) would be integrated into the armed forces.