The fall of Daraa governorate, including the Golan Heights border region, to forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad’s regime on July 31 paves the way for the next battle, in Idlib. Syrian troops are already amassing around the northern governorate. Experts believe that unlike the fighting in the south, the battle for Idlib will be longer and bloodier, as the province is the last insurgency holdout and home to several jihadist organizations.

Russian officials had warned Free Syrian Army (FSA) negotiators July 10 in Daraa that the northwestern province of Idlib would be next, after the fall of much of southern Syria. Despite being included in the 2017 de-escalation plan signed by Turkey, Iran and Russia in Astana, Idlib has regularly been pummeled by Russian and Syria air force strikes, which have destroyed clinics and hospitals across the province. In May, the Financial Times estimated that the population of Idlib exceeded 2.6 million, having swelled from 1.5 million during the civil war.

The area is under regional and local control. According to a May 21 Al-Monitor article, Turkey has deployed two mechanized infantry brigades in the east, south and southwest, reinforced by commando and military engineering detachments, for a total of about 1,300 soldiers. The same article also reports that Turkey had installed its 12th and final de-escalation military outpost in the region of Jisr al-Shughur.

“The Iranians and Russians are deployed east of the Damascus-Aleppo main highway,” Ibrahim Idilbi, a Syrian activist, told Al-Monitor.