MOSCOW — The downing of the Russian Il-20 transportation jet by Syrian air defense systems over what Moscow described as “Israeli provocation” is probably the single most important crisis Russia has experienced in Syria since the killing of dozens of its mercenaries in Deir ez-Zor at the hands of the US military in February. The downed plane carried 15 people and fell in Latakia province. 

The first analogy that popped up immediately after the incident was Turkey's downing of a Russian jet in November, 2015. The similarity looked even more menacing just hours after Russia survived its stress test with Turkey over Idlib.

Russian Defense Ministry was quick to announce that the plane disappeared from radar after “sudden” Israeli strikes on Syria and was eventually hit by Syrian S-200 anti-aircraft systems targeting Israeli jets. Israel was thus named responsible for the incident.

 “The guilt for the downed plane lies fully with the Israeli party,” Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu told his Israeli counterpart Avigdor Liberman in a phone conversation following the incident. Shoigu stressed that Moscow had repeatedly warned Israel against strikes on Syria via different channels.