The apparent murder in Istanbul of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, allegedly on the orders of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, has fueled speculation that Turkey could use the global scandal to help reset its badly bruised relations with the United States. Some opine that Ankara can milk the Washington Post columnist’s disappearance to extract concessions from Washington on a range of issues including Syria and sanctions. Others think the Donald Trump administration can even be convinced to pull its support for the crown prince, a Turkish bugbear due to his hard line on the Muslim Brotherhood and Qatar.
Why it matters: The US-Turkish relationship has been in virtual free fall ever since the July 2016 attempt to violently overthrow Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. For the first time there’s even been talk — albeit overwrought — of Turkey getting kicked out of NATO. An unstable and unpredictable Turkey cast adrift, with its 3.5 million Syrian refugees, would spell big trouble for Europe and attendant benefits for Russia, ever eager to deepen the wedge with the West.
The poisoned well: Turkey blames Pennsylvania-based imam Fethullah Gulen for the failed putsch and detects an American hand in the affair. The US rebuttal of Turkish demands for the preacher’s extradition have sharpened Ankara’s suspicions. And the US partnership with Kurdish fighters in Syria who are tightly intertwined with militants fighting the Turkish army has only made matters worse. But Erdogan’s biggest gripe is the ongoing investigation into Turkish state lender Halkbank over a massive money laundering scheme to help Iran evade US sanctions. Erdogan wants the probe shelved amid fears it may implicate his inner circle. He also wants a pending multibillion-dollar Treasury fine on Halkbank to be scrapped. Washington, again, has refused to budge.
Turkey clearly overplayed its hand when it jailed North Carolina pastor Andrew Brunson, purportedly as a bargaining chip. Trump went ballistic, doubling tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminum exports to the United States and slapping sanctions on Turkey’s justice and interior ministers. He also threatened further sanctions. Turkey freed Brunson last week.
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