Recent statements by the Israeli media that Iran might start selling oil to Russian refineries to evade US sanctions should be taken with a grain of salt. Cooperation with Russia in the oil sector is not Iran's first choice, but rather a plan B to be implemented only if there are no other alternatives left. In addition to presenting daunting technical and economic obstacles, any oil deals with Russia would face severe resistance from the Iranian public.
It is not the first time Israeli media sources have made controversial statements regarding the Russian-Iranian dialogue. There is even a chance they could be right in saying that Tehran and Moscow are discussing ways to help Iran secure access for its oil to the international market. Russia's oil minister did officially state it would be "unfair" to deprive Tehran of such access. However, in the past six months, Russian officials have not once suggested potential options to secure Iran’s interests in this field.
But let's examine the possibilities. All of Russia’s initiatives — real and suspected — have certain specifics.
First of all, potential scenarios on how to help Iran evade the oil embargo would not be limited only to the idea of Moscow purchasing Iran’s oil for Russian refineries. There were rumors that Iran could sell its oil to Rosneft, which would channel it to the Vadinar refinery in India. Some experts speculate that Moscow might either mix Iran’s oil with its own, or transport it through Russian territory for Iran, as moving oil via maritime routes will become difficult for Tehran after the sanctions are reimposed in November. Yet the Kremlin does not seem to be seriously considering either option.
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