Is the Turkish-German spring illusive?
Turkey and Germany are demonstrating willingness to set aside political rows and focus on economic ties, but the thaw in the relationship guarantees neither the investments Turkey expects nor the solution of accumulated problems.
Turkey and Germany have shown they cannot give up on each other economically despite the political tensions bruising their relations. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is happy to welcome guests from Berlin, no matter his harsh accusations against the German government.
Amid charges that Germany harbors suspects wanted in the 2016 coup attempt and abets Kurdish militants, Erdogan has gone as far as to liken German officials to Nazis, while holding several German citizens as virtual “hostages” who could be used as political bargaining chips for Turkish nationals he wants from Germany.
Yet Erdogan has realized he needs to mend fences with European leaders if he wants to find the money to roll over Ankara’s huge debt, stop the flight of foreign capital and break the crisis circle besetting the Turkish economy. Chancellor Angela Merkel made things easier for him when she said in September that Germany has “a strategic interest” in a sound Turkish economy, signaling her view that Turkey’s stability must be maintained despite political spats.
For Turkey, Germany is not only a principal economic partner but also the key to relations with the rest of the European Union. The economic cost of sparring with Berlin bears directly on the real sector, beyond speculative realms. For Germany, meanwhile, any instability in Turkey — a country with a population of 80 million and a gross domestic product of $800 billion — has the potential to affect Europe. Leaving Turkey in turmoil is not something the Germans could risk.
