The Turkish economy entered turbulence in the second half of the year amid a sharp increase in foreign exchange prices, which, in turn, fueled inflation. Though the president maintained there was no crisis, successive indicators spoke of a rapid downturn. Finally, the growth data for the third quarter — released Dec. 10 by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) — offered a telling picture of what is going on.

According to TUIK, Turkey’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew only 1.6% in the third quarter, down from 5.3% in the second quarter and 7.2% in the first one — a sharp decline that matches the definition of recession. For Turkey’s economy, a growth rate of 5% to 6% is considered “the normal.” Thus, the 1.6% rate in the third quarter indicates that the economy is now “officially” in recession.

A sectoral analysis of this state of recession, combined with available indicators for the fourth quarter, show that the turmoil is devolving into a contraction and depression. Given the high inflation marking the turmoil, one could speak even of slumpflation, which is a very difficult type of a crisis.

The sectoral analysis offers little optimism for the coming period. The agricultural and industrial sectors grew only 1% and 0.3%, respectively, in the third quarter, while the construction sector — the star of the economy in the past 15 years — shrank 5.3%, becoming the first to plunge into crisis.