Having entered a recession in the third quarter of the year, the Turkish economy has been heading for a crisis in the fourth quarter, available indicators show. A 6% drop in the industrial production index, released in mid-December, and a 7% shrinkage in the retail sales volume are both important omens of a depression.

The September unemployment data, released Dec. 17, were supplementary indicators of the recession quarter. The jobless rate hit 11.4% in September, up from 10.6% in September 2017. The army of jobless grew by 330,000 people over a year, reaching nearly 3.8 million.

Apart from the rising overall unemployment rate, the increase in youth unemployment has also drawn attention. According to the data, youth unemployment reached 21.6% in September, up from 20% in the same period last year. The jobless youths numbered some 1.16 million, or nearly a third of the country’s unemployed. Pundits estimate that overall unemployment might reach 14-15%, and youth unemployment might hit 23-25% amid the crisis.

In this scary outlook, youth unemployment is worth a separate discussion. A closer look into definitions and measurement methods reveals a reality much scarier than what the official data reflect.