Although not over, the Syrian crisis is beginning a new chapter. Regional governments are slowly accepting the inevitable and beginning to re-engage with Damascus. Given realities on the ground, Arab regimes have concluded that because Syria’s Baathist order is not on the verge of falling, it is most pragmatic to restore relations with President Bashar al-Assad’s government.
A watershed in Syria’s reintegration into the diplomatic fold of the Arab League came late last year when the embattled Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir paid a visit to Damascus. Bashir became the first Arab head of state to meet with Assad since the Syrian crisis started nearly eight years ago. That meeting followed developments in Jordanian-Syrian relations signaling Amman’s interest in a rapprochement with Damascus, and it came shortly before the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain announced the reopening of their diplomatic missions in the Syrian capital.
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members, which mostly opposed Assad’s regime early in the Syrian civil war and supported (albeit to various extents and in different ways) the Sunni-dominant anti-Assad rebellion, have now begun to see their challenge as bringing Syria back to Sunni Arab states’ orbits of influence and further away from non-Arab Iran and Turkey. For Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the main problem with Syria’s regime is not the regime per se, but rather its closeness to the Islamic Republic, Riyadh’s archenemy. Thus, working with Assad would not in itself be a negative issue for Saudi Arabia or Abu Dhabi so long as Damascus pivots away from Tehran, even if that appears unrealistic given how much Assad’s regime owes the Iranians.
Odds are good, however, that the GCC states that are reopening their diplomatic missions in the Syrian capital will be keen to work with Russia on numerous security and economic files in the war-torn country, which badly needs rebuilding assistance. Given that Moscow and Tehran, while closely aligned on Syria, do have competing and conflicting interests in the Levant, as both seek to be the Damascus regime’s top ally in the post-conflict period, the Saudis, Emiratis and Bahrainis would much prefer Russia coming out on top of Iran in this regard.
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