Until a few weeks ago, Israel’s security establishment believed that Hamas has no interest in a comprehensive armed conflict with Israel. Instead, it was thought, Hamas would prefer talks, under Egyptian mediation, leading to some kind of arrangement. The negotiation process, even if it would have been a long one, was expected to lead to a relief in the closure. Meanwhile, Qatari financial aid allowed the Hamas leadership to reduce pressure, pay salaries to the employees of the local government and show the Palestinian population that they are headed in the right direction.
But that’s all over now. Hamas is disappointed with the Egyptians. After all, even if they haven’t cut off all contact with the Gaza Strip, they show no motivation whatsoever to bring Israel and Hamas to any kind of arrangement. Then there is the Qatari aid, which blew up in Hamas’ face. It was already too late by the time the Hamas leadership realized that the damage to its image caused by that aid was much greater to the group than its utility.
Given these circumstances, the humanitarian crisis in Gaza is alive and kicking. What makes it different this time is that after several months of optimism there is no hope for any positive change. This is the most disconcerting scenario, at least as far as Hamas is concerned. There is no war, but there is no hope either. All that's left is the continuing deterioration of Gaza’s economic situation.
It is not just Hamas that’s worried either. The current situation is setting off red warning lights on the Israeli side, too. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) now believe that Hamas could initiate an armed conflict with Israel and be willing to absorb the cost of fighting, if it would turn world opinion on its behalf, put Gaza back on the international agenda and get the international community involved. According to a Haaretz report Feb. 13, as a result of the assessment of the Military Intelligence Directorate (Aman) that Hamas will try to drag Israel into a full-blown war, Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi has ordered preparations for fighting in Gaza to be placed at the top of the IDF’s list of priorities. Similarly, he ordered that a group be formed to identify “high quality targets” in the event of some potential operation.
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