ANKARA, Turkey — Turks are intrigued by what will happen March 31 when they elect new town councils. Rarely have municipal elections been so important. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has addressed a rally in a different city every day this week, and we are still four and a half weeks from polling day.

The reason is simple: the polls are a referendum on Erdogan and this time, with the economy in the doldrums, the opposition is believed to have a better-than-ever chance of humiliating the president.

Local elections in Turkey are traditionally an opportunity to protest. Voters know they are not deciding the fate of the country, so they vote more boldly than in other polls.

Erdogan knows very well that while his name will not be on the ballots March 31, he is in fact the candidate. He dominates his Justice and Development Party (AKP), having shunted aside his internal critics, and the past five years of elections have shown he is clearly more popular than his party. Accordingly, the posters on lampposts and billboards give far more prominence to Erdogan’s face than that of the candidate for mayor.