Will Iraq reemerge as battleground between the US, Iran?
Iraq is primed to emerge as an area of mutual Iranian and American influence, although Tehran does not appear keen to initiate a direct confrontation.
As the Trump administration’s decision to designate Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a "foreign terrorist organization" comes into action, eyes ought to be on areas of common influence, where both Iran and the United States are present and active, whether politically or militarily.
And while countries such as Lebanon, Syria and Afghanistan are emerging as potential fields of confrontation — directly or by proxy — Iraq remains perhaps the most ripe and ready of fronts given the US military presence and also the level of Iranian influence, which goes beyond individual groups and militants to the heart of the Iraqi military establishment.
The fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime following the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 created a vacuum that both the United States and Iran have sought to fill over the past 16 years. The complications of the new Iraq involve its transformation into a space of common Iranian and American influence — and also a struggle that has become a war by proxy, mounting as the differences between the two countries grow.
The rapid rise of the Islamic State (IS) in 2014 created a rare opportunity for both Tehran and Washington to indirectly cooperate in their battle against terrorism in Iraq. Yet, as IS fades as a common challenge, the rules of the game are once again changing.
