On the first anniversary of the US unilateral withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran's Supreme National Security Council announced that Tehran will partially cease performing its commitments under the accord, in accordance with Articles 26 and 36. The statement continued that further steps may be ahead, unless the European signatories uphold their obligations within 60 days.
"We had agreed to cap our uranium enrichment at the 3.6% level. But [after the 60-day deadline] there will be no such limit," President Hassan Rouhani said the same day. "We will also adopt certain measures regarding the heavy water reactor facility in Arak."
From the outset, Iran's hard-liners rejected the 2015 nuclear deal, lamenting it as a series of humiliating concessions to the West in exchange for nearly nothing. They repeatedly demanded that Iran quit the agreement. With Rouhani's stance now marking a significant shift toward their argument, hard-liners no longer find themselves isolated. The idea of suspending nuclear commitments, in fact, now dominates Iran's political sphere and has become the mainstream attitude among political elites.
"Trump maintains the flawed assumption that continued pressure will force Iran into negotiations and that Iran will stay in the deal no matter the circumstances [for Iran]," said Diako Hosseini, a foreign policy analyst at the Center for Strategic Studies, which is affiliated with Rouhani's office. "But by setting that deadline, the Iranian government disproved Trump's theory. By intensifying the pressure, the United States will be only diminishing its chances of bringing Iran to the negotiating table. That will also trigger a shift by Iran from the status quo. Given the overall history of its strategic decisions, the Islamic Republic is more likely to put war before humiliation."
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