The war for Tripoli recently entered its second month, and the main global and regional powers have yet to adopt a coherent or unified approach to the conflict. In fact, their recent actions indicate they are willing to tacitly condone Khalifa Hifter’s offensive by not rallying together to oppose it.

Is this because Hifter’s international backers are more passionate in their support of him than his opponents are in their opposition? That is certainly part of it. The main story appears to be the inertia of his opponents and the sunk cost fallacy of his backers.

The second war for post-Gadhafi succession

On April 4, Hifter’s self-styled Libyan National Army (LNA) commenced Operation Flood of Dignity to “liberate” Tripoli from militias aligned with the Government of National Accord (GNA). It is useful to see this current conflict as the second part of an ongoing war of post-Moammar Gadhafi succession. It began in the summer of 2014, when one side tried to use force to control key chokepoints in Tripoli and nullify election results, while the other declared its intention to purge Libya of Islamists altogether.