The Syrian army's Operation Dawn of Idlib seems to be a step toward the fulfillment of a promise Bashar al-Assad made in February 2019 to "liberate every inch of the country." The military operation, supported by Russia, is ongoing in northwest Hama and southern Idlib.
Supported by its Russian and Iranian allies, the Syrian army achieved some impressive victories on the ground over 2016-2019 in the following areas: northwest-Latakia province; Aleppo, Syria’s commercial capital; Hama and Homs in central Syria; Daraa and Quneitra in the south; the Syrian Desert, or Badia; Damascus and its rural areas; and some areas in Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor. Yet Syria has not overcome the threat of territorial partition or witnessed the restoration of national sovereignty to all its lands.
The author’s own estimates suggest that of Syria's 71,498 square miles of territory, 599 square miles of the territorial sea (0.84%) are controlled by the government. The below estimates, in square miles, depict which forces control how much territory in Syria.
- Opposition militants: 2,973 square miles, or 4.16% of Syrian territory; mostly in Idlib with adjacent areas of Aleppo, Hama and Latakia provinces.
- Turkey: 1,544 square miles in Azaz, Al-Bab, Afrin, or 2.16% of Syrian territory.
- The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF): 1,544 square miles in Aleppo province; 5,019 square miles in Raqqa province; 6,178 square miles in Deir ez-Zor province; the entire 8,996 square miles of Hasakah province, with a grand total of 30.40% of Syrian territory.
- US-friendly forces: 2,317 square miles of desert around Tanf-Homs province, or 3.24% of Syrian territory.
- Islamic State (alleged) presence in desert areas: 386 square miles, or 0.54% of Syrian territory.
- Israeli occupation: 463 square miles of Golan Heights, or 0.65% of Syrian territory.
- Total land not controlled by Damascus: 30,019 square miles, or 41.98% of Syria.
Meanwhile, the above partitions continue to divide the Syrian people. The authorities control big cities with more than 100,000 residents, including: Aleppo (1.6 million residents), Damascus (1.57 million), Homs (780,000), Hama (460,000), Latakia (340,000) and Deir ez-Zor (240,000). Cities outside government control include: Raqqa (180,000), al-Bab (130,000) and Idlib (130,000).
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