US President Donald Trump has not given up the diplomatic track on Iran. In the absence of direct talks, Russian President Vladimir Putin, who met with Trump June 28 at the G-20 summit in Osaka, is now center stage. Putin may be the only potential mediator left with the stature and diplomatic chops to prevent both the collapse of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or Iran deal, and a conflict spiral in the Gulf. Whether the Russian president can pull it off, and what he might ask in return, and whether there are other options on Iran, are all open questions.

'A diplomatic way out'

Trump and Putin “confirmed that they want to find a diplomatic way out,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said after the 80-minute summit in Osaka. A meeting of US, Israeli and Russian national security advisers in Jerusalem two days earlier focused on Iran, as Maxim Suchkov, Marianna Belenkaya and Ben Caspit reported.

Putin appears to prefer tensions on a low boil, which allows him to step up as the "go-to" guy in the region. He alone has close ties with his counterparts in both Iran and Israel, as well as Syria, and enjoys a “very, very good relationship” with Trump, according to Trump.