In his long political career, Abdullah Gul, Turkey’s former president and co-founder of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), has been widely perceived — deservedly or not — as a politician averse to taking risks. Beyond any perceptions and opinions, however, the fact today is that Gul has assumed the role of a “guide” in a long-rumored plan to set up a new party that threatens to split the AKP. In the first tangible indication of a breakup, Ali Babacan, the AKP’s former economic czar, quit the party July 8.

In his resignation, Babacan — who served in several AKP governments under the now-defunct parliamentary system, most recently as deputy premier in charge of the economy — said that he had grown “mentally and emotionally estranged” from his party and that Turkey needed “a brand new vision for the future.” In two brief sentences heralding the new party, he said, “It has become inevitable to start a new effort for Turkey’s present and future. Many of my colleagues and I feel a great and historic responsibility toward this effort.”

Sources close to the work on the new party told Al-Monitor that it was Gul’s desire to have Babacan at the forefront of the move. Gul’s role is described as that of an “ağabey” — a Turkish word that means “elder brother,” but also denotes senior and experienced men whose views are taken into account and whose advice is heeded. In modern-day language, Gul’s role could be translated as “mentor” or “guide.”

Gul might have declined a founding leadership position on the grounds of his age — he turns 69 in less than four months — or because he already retired from the presidency in 2014. Nevertheless, by helping as an “elder brother,” he has still taken on an active role. So, given his reputation for shying away from risky political moves, is it fair to assume that the new movement stands a high chance of success?