Turkey’s gross domestic product shrank 1.5% year-on-year in the second quarter, according to official figures released this week, with a dramatic decrease in investments standing out as a major driver of the contraction. The decline in investments — both in the private and public sector — has been going on for 12 months, bearing heavily on joblessness.
It was the third quarter in a row that the Turkish economy has shrunk. The trend is likely to continue for at least another quarter, as leading indicators point to ongoing contraction in the July-September period. The Turkish Statistical Institute is scheduled to release the third-quarter figure on Dec. 2.
The contraction is even more striking in terms of dollars. The Turkish economy was measured to be worth some $950 billion in 2013. In the ensuing years, the Turkish lira slipped against the dollar, and the economy’s worth was down at $789 billion in 2018. In the first half of 2019, the figure stood at $722 billion on a year-on-year basis. GDP per capita, meanwhile, was $8,800, down from $12,000 in 2014. In other words, Turkey’s GDP and GDP per capita in terms of dollars have sharply declined — especially over the past two years — under the combined impact of a depreciating currency and the economic downtick.
Looking from the optics of production, the only sector that grew in the second quarter was agriculture, expanding 3.4%. In contrast, the industry contracted by about 3% and the construction sector by a staggering 12.5%, while the services sector shrank 0.3%.
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